From September 30, 2009

One of the toughest decisions you'll have to make when you retire is how much to withdraw from your retirement assets on an annual basis. Take too much out and you may spend your later retirement years relying on the help of relatives or living a much lower lifestyle.
Your withdrawal amount can be calculated based on your life expectancy, your expected long-term rate of return, the expected inflation rate, and how much principal you want remaining at the end of your life. Guess wrong on any of those variable and you run the risk of depleting your assets too soon. But your life expectancy, rate of return, and inflation are difficult to predict over such a long time period. Keep these points in mind when making your calculations:
-
Your
life
expectancy.
While it
is easy
enough
to find
out your
actuarial
life
expectancy,
those
life
expectancies
are only
averages.
Many
people
live
longer
than
those
tables
indicate.
How long
close
relatives
have
lived
and how
healthy
you are
can help
you
gauge
your
life
expectancy.
Just to
be safe,
you
might
want to
add five
or 10
years to
your
life
expectancy.
After
all, you
wouldn't
want to
run out
of money
at age
75 or
80, when
you
might
not be
able to
return
to work.
-
Your
rate of
return.
Expected
rates of
return
are
often
derived
from
historical
rates of
return
and your
current
investment
allocation.
Historical
rates of
return
are an
average
of
returns
over a
period
of time.
Returns
may be
better
than
that in
some
years
and
worse
than
that in
other
years.
Even if
you get
the
average
return
right,
the
pattern
of those
returns
can have
a
dramatic
impact
on your
portfolio.
For
instance,
individuals
who
retired
at the
beginning
of 2000
with
most of
their
portfolio
in
stocks
may have
difficulty
overcoming
those
declines.
- Expected inflation. While inflation has been relatively tame recently, that has not always been the case. Over the past 30 years, inflation has averaged 5 percent (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics). Inflation can have a dramatic effect on the purchasing power of your investments. For instance, at 2.5 percent inflation, $1 is worth 78 cents after 10 years, 61 cents after 20 years, and 48 cents after 30 years.
So what can you do to help ensure that you don't run out of retirement assets? Consider these tips:
-
Use
conservative
estimates
when
making
your
withdrawal
calculations.
Add a
few
years to
your
life
expectancy,
reduce
your
expected
return
by a
couple
percent,
and
increase
your
expectations
for
inflation.
While
that
will
result
in lower
withdrawal
amounts,
it will
also
help
ensure
that
your
funds
last
longer.
Take a
careful
look at
any
answer
that
indicates
you can
take
much
more
than 3
percent to
4
percent of
your
balance
out each
year.
Several
studies
have
indicated
that
that is
a
reasonable
amount
to
withdraw
if you
need
your
funds to
last for
several
decades.
That
doesn't
mean you
can't
take
more
out, but
you
should
be very
confident
of your
assumptions
before
doing
so.
-
Review
your
calculations
every
couple
of
years.
This is
especially
important
during
the
early
years of
your
retirement.
If you
find
that
you're
depleting
your
assets
too
rapidly,
you may
be able
to go
back to
work on
at least
a
part-time
basis.
If you
find out
late in
life
that
you're
running
out of
assets,
you may
not have
the
option
of going
back to
work.
- Consider placing three to five years of living expenses in cash or fixed-income investments. That way, if you encounter a severe bear market, you won't have to touch your stock investments for at least three to five years, giving them time to recover.



